基于亚像元分解与增强的MODIS卫星林火监测图像制作

为提高低空间分辨率遥感影像在卫星林火监测部门的应用质量,获取更准确的火灾信息,制作可视效果更好、便于基层部门使用的卫星林火监测图像。本研究以2013年2月6日云南省大理市黄家村森林火灾为背景,研究了一种基于亚像元分解与增强技术的卫星林火监测图像制作技术。结果表明,通过亚像元分解与增强技术,对空间分辨率低的气象卫星遥感图像进行处理,可得到空间分辨率为30 m的图像产品,能够将低分辨率遥感影像处理成超分辨率的遥感影像图像。该技术可应用于林火监测部门发布相关的监测图像。     

ECMWF细网格对浙江沿海10 m风预报性能评估

为更好地开展浙江沿海海上大风的预报服务,本研究对2012年1月1日—2014年12月31日的ECMWF细网格10 m风场产品在浙江沿海的预报性能进行评估,并将其插值到沿海站点和观测数据进行对比分析。结果表明:冷空气影响下,浙江沿海的平均误差为负值,绝对误差分布和变化趋势与平均误差基本一致;台风影响下,24 h预报时效的平均误差为正值,随着预报时效的增加,平均误差逐渐转为负值,鱼山渔场、温台渔场及舟外渔场的绝对误差较其他区域大。另外,预报值和观测数据间的相关系数随预报时效的增加而减小,两者之间的相关系数平均值随海拔高度的增加而减小;ECMWF细网格对岱山和龙山村的预报偏大,对浪岗的预报偏小,预报偏差的离散度随预报时效增加而增大。     

填闲作物腐解过程及其对后茬冬小麦产量的影响

研究了渭北旱塬地区不同填闲作物（长武怀豆（S）、黑麦草（R）及两者1∶1混合（M））翻压和氮肥水平（0、60、120 kg N·hm^-2）双因素处理下，填闲作物的腐解规律、碳氮释放动态及对后茬冬小麦产量的影响，并对腐解速率与Olsen模型进行了拟合。结果表明：各填闲作物翻压后腐解规律及碳氮释放特征均表现为“前期快-中期慢-后期加快”，填闲作物腐解规律符合Olsen模型，在第276天各处理累积腐解率均达70%以上。在第0~35天，同一施氮处理下，累积腐解率和腐解速率均表现为S>M>R（P<0.05）；第35天，S、M和R各处理干物质累积腐解率分别达到61.9%、55.5%和47.5%；在0~35 d，施氮对S、M的腐解影响不显著，对R影响显著，35 d后氮肥效应逐渐减弱；填闲作物的腐解同时伴随其碳、氮的快速释放，在第21天，S、M和R碳氮残留率分别达到40%、50%和60%左右。平均来看，S的碳氮释放速率显著高于R，与M无显著差异。与裸地对照相比，翻压填闲作物能够显著提高后茬冬小麦产量，其籽粒产量增加10%~35% （P<0.05），其中翻压长武怀豆低氮处理和混合翻压低氮处理效果最佳。     

Spatial segregation of striped marlin (Kajikia audax) by size in the eastern Pacific Ocean

Striped marlin (Kajikia audax) is an epipelagic fish distributed in oceanic and coastal waters of the Pacific Ocean. This species is usually found in warm and coastal waters with high primary productivity. The main goal of this study was to describe the spatial segregation of striped marlin by average Eye‐Fork length (EFL) in the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) and its relationship with environmental variables using EFL data obtained from tuna purse‐seining and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). The model suggested that larger individuals of striped marlin were more likely to be found in waters with high Chlorophyll‐a concentration (>2 mg/m³) and with temperatures lower than 25°C, within a region known as the “cold tongue” and the Humboldt current system, while smaller individuals were more likely to be found in warmer and low productive areas within a region known as the “warm pool of the EPO.” We observed that set type caused a large variation on average EFL of striped marlin; larger fish were captured in sets associated with floating objects (natural and manmade), while smaller fish were captured in sets associated with dolphins. Despite this, our findings suggest that striped marlin has a latitudinal gradient in average EFL; larger individuals occurred predominantly south of 10°N, while smaller ones occurred predominantly in coastal waters between 10°N and 20°N, thus demonstrating a spatial segregation of the species affected by its maturity stage.     

Response of Scotian Shelf silver hake (Merluccius bilinearis) to environmental variability

Commercially‐exploited fish populations are not only shaped by fishing pressure, but also by the dynamics of their environment. By quantifying the influence of environmental variability, fisheries management advice can be improved and uncertainties reduced. To this end, we developed statistical models of the response of Scotian Shelf silver hake stock metrics to variability in zooplankton community composition and phenology over the past 18 years and in the physical environment since 1985. Dominant modes of variability in these pelagic habitat indicators were characterized using principal component analysis, and the relationships of silver hake condition, abundance, and recruitment to pelagic habitat variability were assessed using generalized additive models. Condition was largely modulated by the onset and duration of the spring bloom, which controls food availability. In contrast, adult abundance was governed by composition of the zooplankton community and bottom‐water temperature, which dictates the distribution of silver hake. Finally, recruitment was affected by both thermal conditions and food availability. Our results presented here form the basis for qualitative assessment of ecosystem attributes and the influence on silver hake stock productivity.     

The effect of random and density‐dependent variation in sampling efficiency on variance of abundance estimates from fishery surveys

Abundance indices (AIs) provide information on population abundance and trends over time, while AI variance (AIV) provides information on reliability or quality of the AI. AIV is an important output from surveys and is commonly used in formal assessments of survey quality, in survey comparison studies, and in stock assessments. However, uncertainty in AIV estimates is poorly understood and studies on the precision and bias in survey AIV estimates are lacking. Typically, AIV estimates are “design based” and are derived from sampling theory under some aspect of randomized samples. Inference on population density in these cases can be confounded by unaccounted process errors such as those due to variable sampling efficiency (q). Here, we simulated fish distribution and surveys to assess the effect of q and variance in q on design‐based estimates of AIV. Simulation results show that the bias and precision of AIV depend on the mean q and variance in q. We conclude that to fully evaluate the reliability of AI, both observation error and variability in q must be accounted for when estimating AIV. A decrease in mean q and an increase in the variance in q results in increased bias and decreased precision in survey AIV estimates. These effects are likely small in surveys with mean q ≥ 1. However, for surveys where q ≤ 0.5, these effects can be large. Regardless of the survey type, AIV estimates can be improved with knowledge of q and variance in q.     

用模糊综合评判法预测马尾松毛虫幼虫高峰期发生量

为了提高马尾松毛虫一代、二代幼虫高峰期发生量预报的准确性,为有效防治马尾松毛虫提供科学依据,本文运用模糊综合评判的6个数学模型预测安徽省潜山县马尾松毛虫一代、二代幼虫高峰期的发生量,验证预报1989年、1994年、2002年和2017年一代马尾松毛虫幼虫高峰期发生量,预报结果分别为2级、4级、2级和1级,与实况级别完全吻合,预报结果准确。预报1989年、1994年、2002年和2017年二代马尾松毛虫幼虫高峰期发生量,预报结果依次是4级、5级、2级和1级。同样与实况级别全部相同。预报的准确率为100%,模糊综合评判法是一个运算简便、准确性高的预报方法。     

基于完全分解模型的安徽省用水变化驱动效应测度与分析

为了探索安徽省用水变化驱动效应,采用完全分解模型,从人口、经济增长、技术进步、结构变动4层面对用水变化驱动效应进行了测算。结果表明,(1)经济增长对用水变化具有正向驱动作用,是用水增加的主导因素,2001—2014年,共贡献了472.26亿m~3用水,增量效应高达819.75%;(2)人口、技术进步、产业结构变动对用水变化具有抑制作用,其中,以技术进步因素最显著,2001—2014年,技术进步共减少用水333.87亿m3,减量效应达到579.53%,结构变动因素次之,考察样本期,共减少用水量78.4亿m~3,减量效应为136.09%,人口变动因素影响不大,减量效应仅为4.13%;(3)在人口、经济增长、技术进步、结构变动因素共同作用下,年均增加用水4.43亿m~3,若按惯性发展模式,2020年用水将增至298.67亿m~3,远超政府设定的270.84亿m~3红线目标。基于研究结果,提出了大力发展节水型现代农业,积极对传统工业进行节水技术改造,强化第三产业节水型器具推广,着力提升以现代服务业为主的第三产业比重等政策建议。     

济南市1997-2014年农业水足迹及结构变化特征分析

为了研究地区农业用水总量与用水结构动态变化响应关系,深化调控农业产业结构与农业用水结构,基于水足迹理论,采用VAR(2)模型建立了脉冲响应函数以及方差分解,研究了济南市1997-2014年农业水足迹变化情况以及农业水足迹构成之间的响应关系.结果表明,济南市农业绿水、蓝水、灰水足迹呈现逐年递增趋势,其中1997-2009年为快速上升阶段,2009-2014年为平稳上升阶段;种植业水足迹与农业水足迹之间不存在黏滞性,渔业水足迹与农业水足迹之间存在负响应关系;影响济南市农业水足迹的重要因素依次为种植业水足迹、畜牧业水足迹、林业水足迹、渔业水足迹.总之,通过适当减少高耗水种植业和畜牧业生产、增加渔业产品产量、制定长期的农业用水规划,并进一步优化农业用水结构,方可实现农业水资源的可持续利用与发展.